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The Future of Music Careers: Quantum Career Development in an Transforming Industry

by Peter Spellman
March 2003

The beginning of a new year is a good time to reflect on where things are at and where things may be going in our industry. A few of my colleagues have expressed their views on 'industry trends' and, as usual, their insights were penetrating and refreshing.

As a complement to these contributions, I'd like to offer some thoughts not so much on trends in the biz, but on music career development amid these trends.

I will try to open up some of these trends and look at their career implications and applications.

I hope both musicians and industry careerists will gather some guidance for setting their sails amidst the mercurial waves of a transforming entertainment business.

First, some noise from the trenches:

-Of the 35,000 albums released last year by the recording industry, less than 5000 sold over 1000 units.

-Since 1988 only 16 classical albums have sold more than a million copies in the United States; five of them were put out by Victoria's Secret.

-The source of most music listening hours is neither CDs nor radio; it's video games.

-When pop star Sting needed a marketing partner for his 2000 album release he chose Compaq Computer.

-"Ten years ago, rock musicians would never listen to dance music and dance musicians would never listen to classical music. Now, most of the rock musicians I know own samplers and most classical composers I know also are listening to dance music." -- Moby

-Worldwide entertainment and media spending will reach $1.4 trillion by 2006,
(PriceWaterhouseCoopers).

THE NEW MUSIC ECONOMY
The news is good and bad. We're seeing nothing less than a global restructuring of the economy. This isn't a brief shudder; the organizational structures of the last century are being torn apart. Business worlds are deconstructing and reconstructing. Everything is blurred, fuzzy and vague. And the meanings of "work", "career" and "job" are being re-written.

We're also witnessing (and feeling the effects of) the end and beginning of the music business. Like humans, industries pass through developmental stages: birth, youth, maturity and death (or transformation).

Our industry grew rapidly, matured, plateaued and is now in the throes of transformation. How successful this transformation will be depends on how creatively the musical industrial complex can dance with the changes.

Unfortunately, so much of the music industry is beholden to corporate owners itchy for corporate-size profits and driven by rigid corporate imperatives. This wrecks havoc with "artist development"; hell, it wrecks havoc with business development, and necessitates high turnover of both artists and employees.

Complicating industry maturation is an event no one saw coming: a new distribution channel called the Internet. The big labels are contracting as a vast Web is spinning around them. The Internet is both threatening to take the rug of necessity out from under vast sectors of the traditional music business AND providing musicians and songwriters with direct access to global audiences.

All of this adds up to a picture today where it is no less risky to "go indie" than to "get signed", signed, that is, as an artist or as an employee. Choosing to go indie is exploding across all industries not just music. We need only think of indie film or book publishing. Independence is a mark of the times we're living in. We are profoundly on our own in this milieu.

And that's the rub.

We're beginning to accept that we will never return to the more static, less opportunity-rich but also more comforting world in which most of us were raised.

The changes we're living through are both permanent and dynamic. The real social revolution of the last 30 years is the switch from a life that is largely organized for us to a world in which we are all forced to be in charge of our own destiny. That's the scary challenge.

And also the exciting opportunity. Today we have three different music "industries" developing side by side:

  1. the mainstream pop/rock business, which will continue to market established stars like Celine Dion and Whitney Houston;
  2. the chaotic illegal record business, involving at one extreme pirates and bootleggers, at another experimental and political artists refusing to accept the restraints of copyright law; and in between the usual variety of pirate broadcasters, home digital distributors, and so forth.
  3. the indie, genre music scenes, local players connected through web sites and digital radio, but commercial in their niche, making enough money to go on making music but not necessarily seeking to play "the game" of ever-increasing ladder-climbing success.

The first industry is contracting; the second is and always will be present; and the third is poised for quantum development.

The lesson: Unless you're seeking Britney Spears-level fame, then avoid the major labels and prove yourself in the independent sphere first. Someday you may want to partner with a major company (record company or otherwise) but, for now, focus on creating your own success, building your value, maintaining control of your career and music trajectories, following your muse and your spreadsheets with utter dedication and focus.

FROM THE "MUSIC BUSINESS" TO THE "MUSICIAN BUSINESS"
In a sense musicians may be in a better place today than they've ever been before. Taking a cue from the cyber-bard John Perry Barlow, I believe we could be seeing a paradigm shift from the domination of the "music business" to that of the "musician business".

The same forces that are undoing the larger music companies are empowering individual musicians. And as a result, the idea of a "music career" is sprouting new wings as artists and industry careerists begin discarding intoxicating myths and tapping into some new-found powers.

Powers deriving from desktop computers and digital recording gear, from a hyperabundance of entrepreneurial and self-development resources, a segmenting (and reachable) music marketplace, and most importantly, from the Internet - the first tool that puts a global communication and distribution "channel" into the musician's hands.

As venture-funded dotcoms rose, crashed and burned, a quiet revolution has been slowly but surely mounting; one that threatens to turn the music industry on its head.

In a peculiar way, the computer sets the music industry back 300 years.

Consider: Musicians of the past performed songs for royal and religious "patrons" and received support (patronage) in return. It was a direct connection between musician and audience, as small as it was.

Today, with the Net, musicians are capable of galvanizing global audiences, nurturing them through generous communications, and building support models to help them earn a sufficient living.

In other words, the Net allows the patron model to re-emerge only this time, rather than having one exclusive patron, a musician may have thousands. It's a slow-growth strategy but with a pace and quality entirely in the hands of artists and their teams.

"Patrons" subscribe for a reasonable price ($30-40/year?) for access to the artist, first call for all new tracks, and extra values like discounted tickets, fully-packaged recordings, posters and exposure to any other works of the artist.

Musicians and bands like Jonatha Brooks, Scooter Scudieri, Maktub, Christine Lavin and Aimee Mann are all using the digital channel (alongside recordings and performances) to grow and nurture supportive fan bases in this way. Again, slow but sure.

If you're putting out awesome music, then build it and they will come.

The lessons: Accept your new power. See yourself as an entrepreneur - one who creates forms to hold and deliver creative works. Befriend technology and rigorously apply yourself to understanding it. Thow out the "quick fame" idea and commit yourself to long-term career success.

EVERY BUSINESS IS A MUSIC BUSINESS
Every business is becoming a "music business" or, more accurately, an entertainment business.

Management guru Tom Peters claims that "it's barely an exaggeration to say that everyone is getting into the entertainment business." Peters counsels his corporate clients that "the bottom line in commercial life is the sum total of conjured-up dramas created by our customers." The new operative words, says Peters, are myth, fantasy, and illusion.

It's no mere coincidence that other industries try to model the way the entertainment industry is organized. What do the cultural industries - including the recording industry, the arts, television, and radio - do? They commodify, package, and market experiences as opposed to physical products or services.

Their stock and trade is selling short-term access to simulated worlds and altered states of consciousness.

The fact is, they are an ideal organizational model for a global economy that is metamorphosing from commodifying goods and services to commodifying cultural experience itself.

Companies way outside the orbit of the traditional music business are waking up to this all around the planet. As a result, you are no longer beholden to traditional "music industry companies" to achieve music success.

We'd mostly agree that the major record companies served their purpose well: they made recorded music available to us on a fairly vast scale for seventy-plus years, instilling an insatiable appetite for music in the process.

As a result music "sells". Music has accompanied just about every product that's come to market since the thirties. In fact, today some of the most interesting music is heard more readily on tv commercials than on the radio.

Wherever we go we hear music. Why? Because we love it and we want it. We want it when we drive, eat breakfast, shower, work, make love, shop for stuff -- it's the aural landscape of our lives.

We hear music on recordings, at concerts, on tv commercials and at the airport; we listen to music over the phone and in our video games, Walkmen, iPods, Rios and cell phones. The global demand for music is chronic and ever-growing.

We're purchasing music just about everywhere too. 25 years ago you bought records at record stores; today you can get them at record stores, grocery stores, drug stores, book stores, consumer electronic stores, department stores, plant stores, tattoo parlors, bars, gyms, museum shops, thru the mail, over the Internet, at kiosks, at the airport, at MacDonalds, at Starbucks, at Victoria's Secret, thru 800#s, and hundreds of other places-- MUSIC IS EVERYWHERE!

Why?

Because it's a universally loved value and activity, and companies across the board are looking to associate themselves with music and its fans.

The lesson: These trends require a new way of thinking about the "music business" and "industry careers". It's time to stretch our minds and get outside the box of traditional music business models. The "digital common" brings all kinds of non-music businesses into a space where creative partnerships can develop. Non-music partners are fresh and unjaded and excited about associating with musical and entertainment arts as a way of adding value to what they're offering.

We should reflect on where musical skills are used rather than on where music has traditionally been sold. Think of companies you personally resonate with and then focus on those that may have an affinity with the kind of music you produce. Make an alliance and use that alliance to market your music.

Consider: Craig Dory and Brian Levine of Dorian Recordings who get their recordings played on all the new hardware at consumer electronics shows. Smart alliances.

Remember, the economic structures of the last century are being torn apart.

The rules are being rewritten. Anything goes in the business world today.

Therein lies your opportunity.

[continued...]

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